From what I've seen of the job market over the past few years (based on personal experience and keeping up with the wiki):
- Most jobs are posted during the August-September-October period, with a peak in September. The jobs posted earlier usually have deadlines in October (start, middle, or end of month), whereas jobs posted later might have deadlines in late November or even December.
- The time from deadline to short list varies quite a bit. I've heard of some people getting contacted about interviews within a few weeks of the deadline (e.g., mid-October deadline, contacted in early November). In other cases, it can take two to three months (e.g., November deadline, contacted in late January).
- Some schools try to get a jump on other schools by acting quickly and scheduling interviews in November or December. A colleague of mine mentioned that this strategy is sometimes used by "average" schools to recruit stellar candidates before those candidates even have a chance to interview at more prestigious schools. In those cases, offers might be made before the end of the year. However, a lot of schools also wait until the new year to conduct interviews, in which case offers are more likely to be made in February or March.
- The time from interview to offer depends on how many people are being interviewed and the order of interviewees. If you're the first person to be interviewed but there are three others after you, then it could be a month or longer before all the interviews are wrapped up and the search committee has made a decision, received approval to make an offer, etc. If you're the last person to be interviewed, then things might happen in a shorter time frame.
- Some job ads are posted much later (e.g., in the new year) because the schools may have been waiting to get confirmation that they can make a new hire (i.e., funding is or will be available).
If you haven't been contacted for an interview by late March (for jobs with deadlines in, say, October or November) then it's unlikely you're on the short list. Rejection letters can be received at any time, if they're sent at all. Many places will wait until an offer has been accepted before sending their rejection letters, which is why some letters arrive a long, long time after the deadline. Other places send rejection letters right away (i.e., soon after the deadline) to candidates who clearly stand no chance of getting the job (e.g., wrong discipline).
Note that what I've written is in the context of R1 jobs. I don't know to what extent it generalizes to jobs at SLACs and other places. You can check the archived wikis from the past two years to get a sense of various timelines.